Frequently-Asked Questions

Deaths Per Case, sometimes referred to as the Case-Fatality Rate, is a very simple measure of deadliness, based on daily tallies of disease cases and deaths.

The basic calculation is as follows:

Deaths Per Case is important because as data comes in, it can show the change over time in the deadliness of the strains of an airborne disease in circulation within the location.

If more people start dying due to the virus, as we see during lockdowns of various types, the Deaths Per Case will go up as the higher percentage of new cases resulting in deaths will skew the percentage upward.

For example, Florida gave a shutdown order on April 1st that sent their Covid-19 deadliness surging upward until reopenings were fully implemented around June 2nd:

Florida's lockdown led to a deadlier strain of virus that killed up to four times the number of people daily than would have otherwise with the same number of cases throughout May, contributing to the United States having an outsized percentage of the world's deaths due to Covid-19.

If fewer people die due to the virus over time, as we see during reopenings, or in countries that did not restrict their populations, the Deaths Per Case will go down as the lower percentage of new cases resulting in deaths will skew the percentage downward.

For example, Bangladesh wasn't able to implement restrictions on their citizens, and as such, their Covid-19 deadliness almost immediately plummeted, and has remained at low background levels ever since, for one of the lowest rates of Covid-19 deaths in the world:

Deaths Per Case gives a valuable measure for determining the effectiveness of different approaches to cold seasons.